With Nintendo Switch 2 Waiting in the Wings, Sales of the Original Switch and Its Games Continue to Tumble

Nintendo's hardware sales forecast takes another hit as Switch sales fall short of projections. For the first nine months of the fiscal year, dedicated game console sales plummeted 31.7% year-over-year to 895.5 billion yen (approximately $5.7 billion), reflecting decreased sales of both the Nintendo Switch console and its software. Mobile and IP-related revenue also experienced a significant decline of 33.9% year-over-year, reaching 49.7 billion yen (approximately $320 million), primarily due to the challenging comparison with the 2023 success of The Super Mario Bros. Movie. This resulted in a 27.3% year-over-year drop in gross profit to 565.5 billion yen (approximately $3.6 billion).

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For the second consecutive time, Nintendo has lowered its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025. The company anticipates even lower Nintendo Switch hardware sales, reducing its projection by 1.5 million units to 11 million, and software sales by 10 million to 150 million. While sales declines were expected for the eight-year-old Switch, the drop is steeper than Nintendo initially predicted. Nevertheless, the Switch has achieved remarkable success, surpassing 150 million units sold. While overtaking the PlayStation 2's 160 million sales may be challenging, surpassing the Nintendo DS's 154 million sales remains a possibility.

Nintendo characterized Switch and software sales in the third quarter (ending December 31, 2024) as "stable considering the platform's age." Overall Switch family sales decreased by 30.6% year-over-year to 9.54 million units, while software sales fell by 24.4% to 123.98 million units. However, Nintendo highlighted the strong performance of new releases: The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.91 million), Super Mario Party Jamboree (6.17 million), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (5.38 million), and Nintendo Switch Sports (2.63 million) during the quarter. Mario & Luigi: Brothership also achieved sales of 1.4 million units.

Super Mario Party Jamboree stands out as a significant success. In its first 11 weeks (following its October 17, 2024 release), it outperformed previous Mario Party titles on the Switch.

Importantly, the Switch's active player base continues to grow, with 129 million annual playing users in 2024. This indicates sustained player engagement despite the console's age. Nintendo noted that while Switch unit sales declined, holiday season sales in some weeks even exceeded those of the previous year.

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Given the financial report, investors eagerly anticipate the Switch 2's launch. Nintendo confirmed upcoming releases for the original Switch: Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition (March 20 release), and Pokémon Legends: Z-A and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond (scheduled for 2025). The company also reiterated the Switch 2's 2025 release, promising a dedicated Direct presentation on April 2nd and hands-on events globally.